Trump Mulls Houthi Strikes: 3 Scenarios
The question looks like one on Yemen, but Trump's answer will be about Iran.
On Saturday, a Houthi missile strike at Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport killed 13 people, including an American, and wounded over 300. This escalation in the conflict between Iranian-backed Houthis and Saudi Arabia prompted President Trump to consider U.S. involvement. On Sunday, another deadly strike hit the airport, leaving Saudi officials questioning their air defenses' failure.
The question at hand extends beyond Yemen and is more about Iran, with the outcome hinging on post-November 3 midterms and who bears the cost of defending the Gulf. In September, Trump opted against bombing Yemen's Houthis, providing Saudi Arabia with intelligence and targeting data instead. Now, Trump has left the door open for a response to the latest strikes.
Saudi Arabia has been urging for U.S. forces to focus on Iran and the Strait of Hormuz, and the Houthis have assured American diplomats that the Bab el-Mandeb route, a crucial alternative to Hormuz, will remain open. This scenario would spare Trump a new front just three weeks before the midterms, where 65% of Americans disapprove of his handling of the Iran war.
However, this approach comes with the cost of Riyadh bearing the brunt of Houthi barrages, and the Houthis learning they can strike without being targeted by the U.S. In 2025, Trump bombed the Houthis for several weeks, declared their capitulation, and accepted an Oman-brokered truce, sparing U.S. ships. A similar outcome could involve limited punitive strikes on missile sites, followed by a diplomatic push through Oman to halt Houthi fire on the kingdom.
Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey have signed a mutual defense pact, agreeing to rapidly deploy forces to the kingdom. However, Turkey rules out an offensive role. The weak link in this scenario is the deal, as the Houthis vow to continue attacking the kingdom until Saudi strikes end. A pause would ask Riyadh to halt their offensive against the Houthis, barely a week old.
The maximalist option treats Yemen as another front in the Iran war, with Iran's Revolutionary Guards allegedly guiding the Houthis' Red Sea offensive. A sustained campaign against Houthi missile, drone, and command sites would honor Trump's vow against attacking Iran before the midterms, even if not its spirit. Saudi Arabia needs U.S. airspace to resume major combat against Iran, and defending the kingdom now could be a down payment on that access.
However, Iran could respond by striking Saudi oil fields and major cities, causing further escalation. The stakes extend beyond Yemen, as the Iran war, now in its eighth month, remains stalled rather than settled. A U.S. blockade of Iranian ports persists, talks are ongoing through mediators, and Trump has promised no new strikes on Iran before the midterms, but a return to full war is still a possibility.
Written by urgent.news from Newsweek's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
