Security Guarantees For Ukraine Mean Readiness To Defend It In The Event Of A New Attack — French Expert

Effective security guarantees for Ukraine require partners to be prepared to deploy forces on its territory after hostilities end and fight alongside Ukrainians if Russia attacks again, according to Stéphane Audrand, a researcher at the French Institute of International Relations. Whether Western countries are ready to make such a political commitment remains uncertain.

Audrand explained that guaranteeing a country's security means being prepared to fight for it if it is attacked, citing Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union as examples of this. For Ukraine, which is not a member of these alliances, such guarantees would necessitate separate agreements, with their content depending on the terms of a ceasefire.

Audrand believes that simply declaring a ceasefire would be a worst-case scenario, as it would create a difficult situation for ensuring compliance and preventing the aggressor from continuing its actions. He does not consider UN disengagement forces or an OSCE mission effective for Ukraine and stated that creating a demilitarized zone along the entire line of contact with Russia would be extremely challenging.

Instead, foreign forces would need to appear in Ukraine from the first day of a ceasefire, with a clear commitment to fight alongside Ukrainians if aggression resumes. Audrand emphasized that the presence of small allied contingents, like those in the Baltic states, carries significant deterrent meaning and that the Coalition of the Willing should prepare for this scenario at the operational level.