RBI measures may boost local bond demand amid rupee pressure

Mumbai's business scene may see a resurgence in demand for local bonds, as the Reserve Bank of India's weekend measures appear to provide some relief to the weakening rupee. Analysts suggest that companies who had previously halted or halted their domestic bond issuances due to high yields may now return to the market. The central bank's actions are expected to alleviate currency pressure, making bonds a more attractive financing option for Indian companies.

Rising overseas yields and the escalating cost of hedging have made borrowing choices for Indian firms more limited. While banks remain an option, the local bond market could see an initial boost following the recent rate hike, particularly for smaller issuances. Some companies that withdrew bond offerings earlier because yields exceeded their bank borrowing costs might reconsider and submit only up to a yield level they deem acceptable.

The spread between bond yields and bank lending rates varies depending on the borrower's credit rating and loan structure, but as borrowing costs rise, bond issuances might become more competitive for certain companies. Additionally, bonds could provide companies with greater flexibility in managing cash outflows, as bond coupon payments are typically made annually or semi-annually, unlike the monthly payments required for bank loans.

The RBI's intervention aims to curb currency volatility without significantly altering the funding outlook. However, for a sustained increase in overseas bond issuances, there must be more competitive global borrowing costs and greater certainty in the rupee's value. The RBI has opened a special dollar window for Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Hindustan Petroleum to manage their daily foreign currency needs, diverting their dollar demand from the open market.

This move occurs as the rupee falls near record lows, and crude oil prices remain above $100 per barrel. External commercial borrowings may still be pursued, but their success will depend heavily on international market conditions and investor demand.