Publicly owned rail is popular. But is it making the trains run on time?

On a typical Wednesday afternoon in late August, the UK rail network experienced a power failure in the north-west, causing widespread disruption. Passengers stranded on platforms for hours, some having to book hotel rooms, highlighted the severity of the incident. This was not an isolated event, as numerous heatwaves and other technical issues contributed to delays and cancellations throughout the summer.

Public opinion seems to lean towards public rail ownership, with a YouGov poll indicating that almost two-thirds of the population support nationalisation. However, the reality is that plans for this transition are still in their infancy, and experts caution that real improvement is not yet guaranteed.

South Western Railway (SWR), the first of six services to be nationalised so far, saw a significant increase in cancellations during its first year under public ownership. Critics argue that this indicates nationalisation alone does not necessarily lead to improvements. On the other hand, supporters argue that the government's efforts to address staff shortages and introduce new trains have resulted in a decline in cancellations related to staffing issues.

TransPennine Express, nationalised by the Conservative government in 2023, has also seen a reduction in cancellations following a new reliability plan.

However, it is essential to consider the various factors that can impact an operator's performance, such as the state of the infrastructure, weather events, and pre-nationalisation conditions. Additionally, only a handful of operators have completed a full year under public ownership, making it difficult to draw definitive conclusions about the effectiveness of nationalisation in addressing public transportation issues.

Former regulator and current DfT Operator Limited executive, Stephen Glaister, suggests that a comprehensive assessment of the impact of nationalisation might require a decade-long perspective. While the government claims publicly owned train operators are performing better on punctuality and cancellations overall, experts emphasize that various limitations persist, including infrastructure failures and the time-consuming process of acquiring new trains or staff.