Oil prices retreat below US$104 as markets weigh Middle East risks

Oil prices experienced a decline on Monday, with Brent crude sliding below US$104 per barrel and US crude falling beneath the US$91 mark. This drop was primarily driven by investors' concerns over ongoing supply risks in the Middle East, despite recent Houthi attacks on Riyadh’s King Khalid International Airport and a drone strike on a tanker off Oman’s coast.

The attacks, which occurred in quick succession, heightened fears of increased US involvement alongside Saudi Arabia to combat the Iran-backed militants in Yemen, further complicating the volatile geopolitical landscape. Additionally, the announcement by US President Donald Trump of a “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine, effective immediately, also played a role in shaping market sentiment.

In response to Hurricane Isaias, the US Department of Energy authorized an emergency exchange involving up to four million barrels of crude from strategic reserves aimed at mitigating supply disruptions. The US Dollar Index, which traded around 102.10 on Monday, saw a slight decline of 0.1 per cent from the previous session, reflecting a broader trend of a 2.7 per cent drop over the past four weeks, though it remained up about 2.9 per cent over the past year.

The index is projected to reach 101.813 by the end of the current quarter and 100.465 by the end of the year. Meanwhile, the USD/MYR exchange rate fell 0.09 per cent to RM4.0823, marking a 0.35 per cent decline against the US dollar over the past month, but a 3.42 per cent gain over the past year. Economic forecasts suggest the US Dollar Index will hover around 101.813 by the end of the current quarter and 100.465 in one year.