Oil prices fall on Trump’s ‘energy ceasefire’ claim, Asian markets mixed

Hong Kong, October 12 — Asian stock markets experienced mixed results today, as oil prices dropped following Donald Trump's assertion of an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine. The price decline was triggered by a fresh wave of Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, which caused both main crude contracts to plummet more than one percent at one point.

The announcement came as a surprise to Kyiv, which claimed that Moscow had struck multiple power plants in Ukraine. President Trump's tweet declaring the cease-fire read, "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!"

The Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expressed astonishment at the announcement, stating that he was awaiting more details. He added that Ukraine supports the ceasefire and called for Russia to do the same. However, Russia had not yet confirmed its agreement. While the announcement was welcomed by Ukraine's allies, Trump had faced criticism for easing US sanctions on Russian diesel, which European leaders and Kyiv argued would only encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin.

The oil price drop reversed an initial spike after the Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia over the weekend, which killed at least a dozen people, including at Riyadh's international airport. The attacks marked a significant escalation in the Yemen conflict, where Saudi Arabia has long supported the internationally recognized government against the Houthis. Iran-backed Houthis claimed multiple attacks over the past 24 hours and threatened to continue targeting the kingdom's transit hubs.

The market's reaction to geopolitical events shows a reluctance to pay a premium for each new escalation without tangible impacts on barrels, shipping lanes, refining capacity, or insurance costs. According to SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes, "The physical market remains tight enough to keep Brent above US$100 (RM403), but futures are refusing to treat every new escalation as the start of another straight-line inflation shock."

Asian markets started the day positively, with Hong Kong, Sydney, Singapore, Wellington, and Manila rising. However, the rally weakened throughout the day, as Seoul and Taipei fell due to losses in chipmakers SK hynix, Samsung, and TSMC. Shanghai, Mumbai, Bangkok, and Jakarta also experienced declines. US futures were higher, while London, Frankfurt, and Paris opened higher.

Tokyo was closed for a holiday. Investors are also anticipating key US inflation and retail sales data, which could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates. Additionally, the beginning of earnings season and tech sector developments are on the horizon.