LatAm and Africa Prediction Markets, Week of 12 Oct
Brazil’s Trump-endorsement odds halved in a week, South Africa’s inflation bets jumped and Ethiopia-Eritrea war odds rose. See what traders expect next. The post LatAm and Africa Prediction Markets, Week of 12 Oct appeared first on The Rio Times .
Most trading activity this week occurred in Brazil's presidential election, with Polymarket processing $8.6 million in wagers. Flávio Bolsonaro was favored at 86.7% to win the October 25 runoff, as opposed to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's 12.5%. Trump's endorsement of Bolsonaro caused a significant shift in market odds, dropping from 54.5% to 21.5%, marking the biggest one-week move on the board.
In South Africa, odds of annual inflation exceeding 5.0% in 2026 increased from 38.7% to 68.2%. Mexican central bank interest rate odds changed from a 95% certainty of holding rates in November to 74.5%, while a 25 basis point cut saw a rise from 2.1% to 19.7%. Brazil's Selic interest rate cut odds also shifted, moving from 73.0% to 86.5%.
Ethiopia's odds of Eritrea invading by December 31 rose from 21.0% to 32.5%. Ethereum and Eritrea's odds of invading each other changed from 21.0% to 32.5% and from 9.0% to 19.0%, respectively, over a week. The odds of Nicolás Maduro being found guilty on all counts decreased from 37.0% to 26.5%, while the prison sentence bucket rose from 23.0% to 32.0%.
US strike odds on Colombia increased from 13.5% to 22.5%. Overall, the largest volume traded was on Brazilian and Ethiopian invasion odds at $91,000 and $34,600 respectively, while other markets saw smaller volumes, indicating a general drift in sentiment rather than a specific event driving the changes.
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