How Much Has De la Espriella Really Improved Security in Colombia?

Two months after Abelardo de la Espriella assumed office, security has become the centerpiece of his administration's political agenda in Colombia. The president has emphasized crackdowns on criminal organizations, arrests, extraditions to the United States, and drug and weapons seizures as symbols of his tough-on-crime approach. However, the available data paint a less impressive picture than the president's rhetoric suggests.

In terms of drug seizures, authorities seized 94,868 kilograms of drugs from August 7 to September 19, a 45% decrease compared to the average of 173,665 kilograms in the same period over the past four years. Cocaine, a main target of the fight against drug trafficking, saw a 47% drop, with only 63,310 kilograms seized during the analyzed period, compared to 173,665 kilograms in the previous four-year average.

Marijuana, basuco, and heroin seizures also declined. The only exception was cocaine base paste, which saw a 2.8% increase year-over-year.

Similarly, the numbers on firearms seized and arrests under scrutiny raise questions about the consistency of the government's message. While authorities reported 2,316 guns seized between August 7 and September 19, the monthly total remains within recent years' range. Moreover, the number of arrests announced by De la Espriella as 21,940 since his inauguration is disputed by National Police records, which indicate only 6,660 arrests in August, a 5.7% increase from the five-year average of 6,300 arrests.