China-EU deal brings new curbs on China’s US$7.5bil hybrid boom

SHANGHAI: A recent agreement between China and the EU aims to curb Chinese hybrid vehicle exports, potentially impacting Chinese EV manufacturers. The deal has already seen Chinese hybrid sales to the EU surge, with exports reaching US$7.5 billion in the first half of this year, nearly triple the previous year's figure of US$2.5 billion. China's customs data shows the exports increased ninefold compared to 2021.

Hybrid vehicles, which are exempt from tariff duties, have gained popularity in Europe due to their long range and strong fuel economy, despite weak charging infrastructure in certain regions. SAIC, BYD, and Chery accounted for over 90% of Chinese hybrid sales in the EU, with hybrids making up more than half of their European sales.

Industry analysts believe the deal is a step towards de-escalating trade tensions and a signal that tariffs on Chinese hybrids may no longer be an issue. Citi analysts view the agreement as a risk-relief rally story, pending the technical negotiations regarding implementation rules, volume caps, price floors, and carve-outs.

While European trade commissioner Maros Sefcovic stated that the agreement would cut several million cars over four years, the specifics of the agreement have yet to be disclosed. Investors largely perceived the deal as a positive development, with shares in BYD, Chery, and SAIC reacting accordingly.

Analysts foresee Chinese automakers accelerating their move towards manufacturing in Europe due to constrained import access. However, smaller players might reconsider their European ambitions due to the capital required for localisation.