Brazil Shut for Holiday; Selic Cut Odds Hit 86% | Morning Call, Oct 12
Brazil's stock exchange is closed for the holiday, so traders look to Tuesday. A November Selic cut is priced at 86.5% and 2026 inflation at 5.01%. The post Brazil Shut for Holiday; Selic Cut Odds Hit 86% | Morning Call, Oct 12 appeared first on The Rio Times .
Brazil's stock market, B3, is closed for the Our Lady of Aparecida public holiday today, so there is no pre-market trading. The main focus of the day is the Central Bank's Focus Market Readout, released at 8:25 am BRT, which will update expectations for inflation and the Selic interest rate. Polymarket traders currently give an 86% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in the Selic rate during the November Copom gathering, with only a 9% chance of no change.
The holiday means there is no cash session, corporate earnings, or ex-dividend dates, leaving traders to focus on forward positioning and the Focus survey. The Ibovespa, Brazil's main stock index, is sitting right at its 52-week high of 209,066.90, which may be tested again on Tuesday.
The Focus readout is the only Brazilian data point today. It will set the tone for traders' decisions about whether the Central Bank will cut the Selic rate again in November. Currently, the expected inflation figure of 5.01% keeps the decision contested, but the high probability of a cut is a strong market signal.
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