Black Sea disruption enters third month, pushes wheat buyers to alternative origins

In the third month of Black Sea wheat disruptions, buyers across Egypt to Bangladesh grapple with supply shortages. Egypt faces shortages due to exporters staying away, while Turkey and Bangladesh have sought alternatives. The Platts wheat benchmark, Milling Wheat Marker, averaged $211.73/metric ton in September, down from $219.30/mt in August.

Rising freight costs and port disruptions lowered the Marker to $204/mt on Oct. 6. Russian sellers largely avoided the market due to limited routes, redirecting cargo to Baltic ports. Demand for Baltic shipments increased prices for Volga and Central wheat. Baltic ports remain congested, limiting offers and causing delays. Russia-based sellers expressed reluctance to return to the market.

Baltic-to-Egypt freight rose by $10/mt to $54/mt, while FOB Riga and Liepaja traded at $272-273/mt. Ukraine, relying on the Danube route, faced port strikes and increased shipment costs through Moldova. Exporters prioritized higher-margin autumn crops, and marine routes' share of Ukrainian wheat exports fell to 78%. Egypt's private importers faced low stocks and higher costs, with ex-warehouse wheat prices at 17,200 Egyptian pounds/mt, up 200 Egyptian pounds/mt week over week.

Ukraine replaced Russia as the top supplier, shipping 136,921 mt. Turkey turned to government stocks and a record harvest, while Bangladesh sought Indian wheat. The CVB market was assessed at $294.25/mt, down from its September peak but still with a $90/mt premium to the Milling Wheat Marker.