Bessent will likely cut US long bond sales next month, says Citi
Earlier this week, strategists at BNP Paribas SA said they were skeptical that such a move would be effective at lowering government borrowing costs.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is expected to decrease the size of auctions for long-term U.S. government bonds, possibly even discontinuing sales of 20-year debt altogether, according to Citigroup Inc. The bank forecasts a US$3 billion reduction per auction for both 20- and 30-year bonds, which would be offset by increased Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (T-bill) issuance, reported head of US rates strategy Jason Williams.
This information is expected to be announced at the Treasury Department's quarterly refunding on November 4. Citi's strategist advised clients to position 20-year bonds to outperform 10-year notes, anticipating a reduction or cancellation of 20-year bonds. A possible indicator could be revealed in a survey of dealers scheduled for the following Friday.
If the department questions major financial institutions about whether demand for long-end debt is being "partially undermined" by high-quality issuance from hyperscalers, it could serve as a "bullish catalyst" for the trade, according to Williams. Although some doubt exists regarding the effectiveness of such a move in lowering government borrowing costs, pension funds may be increasingly inclined towards long-end investment-grade bonds over their usual preferences, as per the strategist's assessment.
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