Asean energy transition hinges on where capital can find returns

Nearly eight in ten businesses in South-east Asia have faced higher energy costs and reduced profitability since the Iran war started, resulting in one in two firms postponing their decarbonisation and sustainability plans. However, despite these obstacles, companies remain committed to transitioning towards low-carbon energy sources, opting instead to invest in productivity-driven solutions to address cost pressures.

Companies are also closely monitoring the progress of the Asean Power Grid (APG), an initiative to interconnect the region's power systems for cross-border electricity trade, and believe that meaningful advancements would encourage them to invest in the Asean region.

The Business Times Insights: Powering Asean’s Future 2026, a report released on October 12, surveyed 514 corporations in the Asean-6 economies, which comprise Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam. While energy costs have risen across the region, impacting 79 percent of businesses and causing profit erosion for 76 percent, the impact varies among countries.

Vietnam, for instance, stands out as the only country where 87 percent of businesses reported increased energy costs, but only 61 percent stated that it negatively affected their profitability.

To counteract the cost pressures, 61 percent of respondents are investing in energy efficiency measures, and 54 percent are accelerating automation and AI adoption. Both energy efficiency and AI automation are the top choices for companies if high energy prices persist in the long term, with 66 percent planning to invest in energy-efficient technologies and 62 percent looking to speed up automation and digitalization.

The report indicates a "clear strategic pivot" across South-east Asia, shifting from viewing energy as an operational expense to recognizing its role as a critical enabler of competitiveness, expansion, and business continuity.

However, despite some potential relief from elevated prices as emergency oil reserves are released and alternative export routes are explored, OCBC ESG analyst Ong Shu Yi warned that this does not signal a sustained normalization of energy markets. The ongoing Middle East conflict and persistent security risks are likely to keep energy markets uneven and gradually normalize, despite any temporary easing of tensions.

The report highlights that among the Asean-6 markets, Singapore has the highest percentage of companies reporting significant delays in decarbonisation plans at 29 percent, compared to the regional average of 20 percent. In contrast, 39 percent of Indonesian companies and 37 percent of Vietnamese companies are accelerating their efforts.

This difference in response could be due to Singapore companies being at a different stage in their energy efficiency and decarbonisation journey, as energy efficiency gains or decarbonisation effects from earlier phases may have already been captured, making the next stage more challenging and costly.