AI investment boom offsets energy shock to keep global growth at 3%, IMF chief says

International Monetary Fund chief Kristalina Georgieva says strong investment in AI infrastructure is maintaining global growth at roughly 3 percent, despite an energy supply shock. The surge in AI investment is delivering a "demand shock" and "investment shock" that could propel growth in advanced Asian economies by 0.5 to 1 percentage point, and in emerging Asian economies by 0.2 to 0.8 percentage point, Georgieva stated on the opening day of a week-long series of meetings between the IMF and World Bank in Bangkok, Thailand.

The IMF initially projected global growth of 3 percent for 2026, with an updated outlook expected on Tuesday. Approximately 18,000 attendees, including finance officials from the IMF's 191 member countries, are anticipated to participate in the meetings, with several ministers opting to focus on domestic issues. Georgieva warned that AI represents a "slow-moving tsunami" with significant implications for jobs, growth, education, and government revenue.

She estimated that AI could augment, downgrade, or eliminate 40 percent of jobs over time, with 10 percent of US jobs already requiring AI skills. While routine, repetitive jobs are declining, low-paying jobs are increasing in construction and data centers. Georgieva emphasized that AI is a transformative technology that fundamentally changes how people work and live, citing an AI assistant that provides her with a 30-second summary of her daily schedule.

The US, China, and India are the leading AI producers, but many firms developing necessary infrastructure are in Asia, particularly Thailand, the host country for the 2023 meetings. World Bank President Ajay Banga highlighted the importance of leveraging "small AI" to generate productivity gains in emerging markets, such as agriculture, healthcare, and education.

Singapore's President Tharman Shanmugaratnam cautioned that AI is reducing job opportunities for recent graduates, and called for urgent action to ensure AI creates good jobs and does not exacerbate economic divergence between developing and advanced economies.