After oil increasingly left the Gulf, Iran is trying to regain its stranglehold on shipping

Since the end of September, Iran has been intensifying its attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, aiming to reassert control over the vital waterway. Over a dozen such strikes have been reported, causing a decrease in oil shipments and maintaining crude prices above $100 per barrel. US President Donald Trump has no intention of launching military strikes against Iran leading up to the midterm elections on November 3rd, as high energy costs could potentially influence the political landscape.

The administration is engaged in constructive talks with Tehran, with the primary objective of preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. However, Iran considers Hormuz as a "strategic red line" and is expanding its target range in the Gulf. The protection of the strait is non-negotiable for Tehran, even as it grapples with economic challenges.

The US and several Gulf states emphasize that the freedom of navigation in international waters is non-negotiable, a view supported by the UAE's National Guard which rescued 22 people following an oil tanker fire. According to the UK Maritime Trade Operations, which monitors shipping incidents, several other attacks have occurred in recent days, with the master of an outbound tanker reporting a fire caused by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz.

Another attack in the same area on Sunday resulted in vessel damage, but all crew members were accounted for.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed on Saturday that a crude oil supertanker suffered a significant explosion after colliding with a naval mine while attempting to leave the Strait of Hormuz through a route Tehran had not authorized. The IRGC's chief, Ahmed Vahidi, stated that no extra-regional power has the right to threaten, dominate, or interfere in the Strait of Hormuz, which Tehran views as its strategic red line.

The UKMTO reported that Iran had issued a warning to six vessels anchored around 16 miles from the UAE port of Ras al Khaimah, instructing them to leave the area immediately and proceed to Dubai. Analysts attribute the increase in Iranian attacks and threats to the higher volumes of oil and petroleum products passing through the strait.

The average daily flow was approximately 13.1 million barrels at the end of September, which is nearly 80% of the 17.1 million barrels that previously traversed the strait daily prior to the conflict. However, shipments seem to have slowed down recently, with only seven tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, a number lower than the seven-day average and the lowest since July 23, based on Kpler's data.