The Last Generation That Learned the Hard Way
In August 2026, Stanford's Digital Economy Lab updated its "Canaries in the Coal Mine" paper using ADP payroll data. Two findings sit side by side: Employment for workers aged 22 to 25 in highly AI-exposed occupations, software development among them, is about 19% below where it would be if it had kept pace with less-exposed peers. In the July 2025 data it was 15%. Experienced workers show no…
In August 2026, Stanford Digital Economy Lab updated its "Canaries in the Coal Mine" paper using ADP payroll data. The findings revealed that employment for workers aged 22 to 25 in highly AI-exposed occupations, such as software development, is about 19% below its potential if it had kept pace with less-exposed peers. The gap was 15% in July 2025 data.
Experienced workers, however, showed no comparable gap. This suggests that those between 22 and 25 years old, who were supposed to become the next generation, might face challenges. As engineers who learned to build before AI share their perspectives on the AI era, this article explores the future, presenting more questions than answers.
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