Show HN launches now run on repos created days before posting. It used to be months.

A recent analysis of GitHub's Show HN posts reveals a significant shift in the timeline of project launches. Historically, the top-performing posts ran on repositories that were months old. However, this pattern has changed dramatically. In 2026, the top decile of Show HN launches occurred on repositories that were a median of just 17 days old, a stark contrast to the 70-day median observed in 2024.

This trend is even more pronounced, with 25% of top-decile launches happening on repositories that were 14 days old or less in 2026, up from 37% and 47% in the previous years.

The study, conducted on 430 repositories drawn from 19,983 unique GitHub-linked posts, found that the median time between a repository's creation and a launch has decreased from 322 days in 2024 to just 7 days in 2026. While it's important to note that these are percentile figures and not absolute counts, they highlight a clear trend towards quicker project lifecycles.

Interestingly, even posts with fewer than 200 points, which often indicate less serious projects, show a similar trend, with a median of just 7 days in 2026.

The data also suggests that the composition of top-decile posts has shifted, with a growing emphasis on AI applications rather than traditional development tools. However, it's crucial to note that created_at does not represent work started. Repositories can be transferred, renamed, or have their visibility changed without altering the creation date, which only changes if a repository is deleted and recreated.