OPINION… THE DILEMMA BEFORE THE BALLOT: Nigeria’s 2027 elections and the crisis of trust

Nigerians face a daunting dilemma as they prepare for the 2027 elections: should they participate in a system they no longer trust, or withdraw from the electoral process entirely and accept the consequences of their disengagement? Between rigging and resignation, the choice seems impossible. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is unveiling timetables and promoting technology, while civil society organizations launch voter education campaigns across the country. However, on the streets, there is a pervasive feeling of deep ambivalence rather than excitement.

The dilemma splits the country into two camps. The first group, distrustful of INEC, decides not to participate at all. This group is not insignificant, as the 2023 presidential election saw a turnout of only 27 percent, the lowest in Nigeria's history since 1999. A recent Afrobarometer survey indicates that only 23 percent of Nigerians trust INEC, down from 47 percent in 2017. These individuals see their decision as a verdict on an institution that has failed them.

The second group votes, but with significant apprehension about the process. They fear their vote may not reach its destination due to violence or manipulation at the polling unit or collation center. This fear is backed by the experiences of the 2023 general elections, where Yiaga Africa documented 101 cases of result manipulation and intimidation across 21 states.

The recent 2022 Electoral Act still fails to secure high-profile convictions for vote-buying, which has become a widespread issue, with some observers offering up to N15,000 per vote.

The chain of factors contributing to the erosion of trust in the electoral system includes vote-buying, judicial reliance, security collusion, and manipulative electoral officers. Vote-buying has become a blatant and openly practiced practice, with prices ranging from N3,000 to N15,000 per vote, despite criminal sanctions. The judiciary, which should be the last hope for citizens, has become a symbol of judicial intervention rather than the primary decision-maker.

Security personnel have also become accomplices in suppressing voter rights, while electoral officers manipulate results, undermining faith in the system. With these factors compounding, Nigerians are left to decide between participating in a system they doubt or choosing to withdraw and accept the consequences of their disengagement.