Las grandes tecnológicas sacuden el mercado global de deuda

The rapid expansion of artificial intelligence (AI) requires huge capital investments from the technology sector, forcing companies and countries to reconsider how they obtain financing. As Silicon Valley giants expand globally for liquidity, they often reshape the economy in the process, the European debt markets are preparing to welcome a new borrower.

Meta plans to enter the European bond market for the first time this autumn to raise funds for its AI expansion, according to investors familiar with its goals. This marks the final stop in the record fundraising quest by the sector, involving both new and traditional sources, a frantic race with significant implications for other borrowers during the current AI investment supercycle.

The dominant narrative is that debt is flowing into the market on an unprecedented scale, with figures simply enormous. This influx is transforming how the world raises funds, affecting where, when, and at what cost companies and governments issue debt. Some argue this could be the greatest change since the creation of the eurobond market in the 1960s.

Many companies are forced to act cautiously around the large technology firms, timing their bond issuances to avoid coinciding with those of the tech giants, and often opting for shorter maturities to avoid the over-supply of long-term debt in the market. Even major financial players acknowledge being affected. The Federal Reserve's President, Kevin Warsh, and the US Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, say the tech giants compete for capital with the US Treasury bond market, where 10-year financing costs hit their highest level since 2007 last week.

The European Central Bank's staff have expressed concern that the surge in tech giants' borrowing could hinder access to financing for other companies and economic sectors. The magnitude of borrowing has shattered all precedents. Last week, the Japanese conglomerate SoftBank raised over $11 billion in debt through the largest junk bond issuance in history to fund an investment in OpenAI.

In total, according to Goldman Sachs, investors have provided nearly $500 billion in financing to groups tied to AI this year. Hyper-scalers - Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Oracle - represent $200 billion of the total, and it is expected they will issue over $1 trillion in new debt in the coming years to fund their massive infrastructure investments to drive AI.

This demand has created credit markets capable of supporting emission of debt larger and longer than ever before. However, this has distorted prices, with high-quality bonds sometimes trading at a discount to lower-quality issuances due to the sudden excess of supply. It also brings new risks. Chip manufacturers, data center operators, and their energy suppliers are turning to public and private credit markets, as well as financing among themselves, making it difficult for pension funds and insurers buying their debt to evaluate their true level of exposure to the sector.

Interconnections among borrowers, in a new sector whose long-term trajectory is still uncertain, have caused fears that if one fails, the others could be dragged down with it. How much to issue? In 2025, when debt issuance by the hyper-scalers was just beginning, tech giants challenged their bankers to calculate and analyze their real capacity in each market, explains the firm.

Then they acted, starting with the market they know best: US corporate bonds. Aviva Investors' Fraser Lundie says the ensuing supply shock quickly overwhelmed investors, allowing them to demand lower prices and higher yields, or higher financing costs for the hyper-scalers. However, there are few signs that the higher financing costs are dissuading the tech giants from issuing more debt.

During the second quarter earnings season, Google, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta increased their capital expenditure forecasts to a combined total of $745 billion for this year. To avoid saturating the market, some hyper-scalers have guaranteed investors they will not issue debt for two consecutive quarters. But companies in other sectors remain concerned about the possibility of being displaced by the massive debt issuances of the hyper-scalers.

Going to market at the same time as Oracle or Amazon could mean higher costs, as buyers of bonds set aside cash to invest in AI-related issuances. Record-breaking magnitudes of borrowing and their impact on prices, even in the developed US bond market, have led tech giants and their bankers to travel the world. As a result, they have set records.

In June, Amazon issued $14 billion in Canadian debt, breaking the previous maximum of $8.5 billion set by Alphabet just a few weeks earlier. Last month, Alphabet issued a record $5.5 billion bond.