Kamala Harris Is the Shadow Incumbent of 2028

Kamala Harris, the former vice president, remains an enigmatic figure in Democratic politics as she contemplates a potential 2028 presidential campaign. Despite having served as the party's nominee and spent four years in the White House, Harris has not announced her candidacy and occupies a unique position that grants her certain privileges of incumbency without having won the presidency.

Gavin Newsom, California's Democratic governor, has declared that he would not run if Harris were to enter the race. He described the competition between them as "mutual assured destruction," arguing that their rivalry would benefit other candidates. Newsom's decision to refrain from running is likely influenced by their shared background and overlapping political networks, which could divide the California base and weaken their support among rivals from other states.

Harris's influence extends beyond her potential candidacy. In states like Pennsylvania and Illinois, other Democrats have expressed interest in running for president in 2028, but have not yet committed to a decision. They are considering Harris's possible entry into the race as they formulate their own political strategies. This includes financial considerations, as Harris's strong support among Black voters, who made up a significant portion of her 2024 base, could impact their fundraising efforts.

Despite her influence, Harris's potential candidacy does not guarantee a clear path to victory. Other Democrats, particularly those facing Republican-leaning states, may view her presence as a liability. Some have outright rejected unsolicited fundraising appeals from Harris, arguing that her involvement could hurt their chances of attracting voters.

This highlights the complex position Harris occupies: while she commands a significant amount of influence within the Democratic Party, her political future remains uncertain and contingent upon the decisions of other ambitious candidates.