James Talarico’s Chances in Texas Senate Race After Absence
Talarico’s odds remain strong despite a nine-day absence that drew criticism from Republicans.
James Talarico's chances of winning the Texas Senate race remain favorable on prediction markets, despite a nine-day absence from campaigning that has been targeted by Republican attacks. Talarico is currently priced at 63 percent to win on Kalshi and 64 percent on Polymarket, compared to 37 percent for Republican Ken Paxton. These figures, which come after Talarico took a break from in-person campaigning while recovering from the flu, indicate he is still the favorite candidate, despite some fluctuations in the market during his absence.
Talarico's odds were at 60 percent versus Paxton's 40 percent as of September 28, according to Kalshi. His implied probability of winning decreased slightly from 66 percent to 63 percent when he was away from campaigning, while Paxton's odds rose from 34 percent to 37 percent. However, Talarico regained the lead in public opinion polls as he returned to campaigning.
The Democrat, a state legislator, is leading by over 3 points in a recent Trafalgar poll of 1,086 likely voters in Texas, with 47.1 percent supporting him and 43.6 percent backing Paxton. Other polls have also shown close races with Talarico in the lead. Nonetheless, the outcome of the race remains uncertain, and the impact of Talarico's absence on his support among voters is yet to be determined.
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