Interview: N. Korea denuclearization 'increasingly improbable': analysis site director
TOKYO (Kyodo) -- The denuclearization of North Korea has become an "increasingly improbable" goal, and the United States and its allies should move be
The denuclearization of North Korea appears to be an increasingly unattainable goal, according to Jenny Town, director of the U.S.-based North Korean analysis website 38 North. In a written interview with Kyodo News, Town discusses the 20-year history of North Korea's nuclear program and the latest developments. In 2017, North Korea conducted its first intercontinental ballistic missile test, marking a pivotal moment in the country's weapons development.
This test altered the nature of the threat and U.S. allies' perception of U.S. extended deterrence. The spread of both theater and long-range capabilities, capable of reaching the U.S. homeland, has exacerbated fears in South Korea, which will only continue to grow as Pyongyang enhances the credibility of its strategic weaponry.
Despite past willingness to make concessions to improve the security environment on the Korean Peninsula, the U.S. has failed to take North Korea seriously during certain moments, often only responding to provocative actions. The biggest missed opportunity was the working-level talks between the U.S. and North Korea in Stockholm in October 2019, following three meetings between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
In 2018, the U.S. and North Korea met in Singapore, with Trump agreeing to provide security guarantees in exchange for North Korea's complete denuclearization. However, during the subsequent talks in Vietnam, both sides failed to bridge the gap. North Korea declared in 2022 that its status as a nuclear weapons state was irreversible, marking a significant shift in its approach.
The expert on Northeast Asian security issues notes that North Korea's preconditions for talks are now highly demanding, as it does not just involve ceasing to discuss denuclearization but also declaring a denuclearization agenda over. However, continuing to focus on denuclearization has prevented dialogues on risk reduction, crisis communication, arms limitations, doctrine, and other critical aspects.
Town concludes that denuclearization, when North Korea is so advanced in its deterrent development, is an increasingly improbable task.
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