Demographic change: Germany's population is declining, but not everywhere
By 2045, Germany will have more older people, fewer workers, and a smaller population overall. Yet some regions will defy this trend. Their success depends on how much they have to offer.
Germany's population is projected to decline from 83.5 million in 2025 to approximately 81.8 million by 2045, according to a study conducted by the Berlin Institute for Population and Development. This change is primarily driven by a shrinking workforce and an aging population, with the working-age population seeing a projected decrease of 4.7% by 2045.
The study highlights that while Germany's population is shrinking, the trend is not uniform across the country. Some regions will experience significant population decline, while others will continue to grow, with economic attractiveness and financial strength becoming increasingly important factors.
In eastern Germany, southern Germany, and rural areas, the demographic divide is widening, with a growing gap between regions in terms of population decline and economic development. The study emphasizes that migration, both inward and outward, now plays a crucial role in shaping a region's demographic trajectory, as migration alone is no longer sufficient to halt the aging of society.
To remain attractive to people relocating from abroad or other parts of Germany, regions need to offer high-quality jobs, skilled workers, robust municipalities, reliable childcare, and efficient transport infrastructure.
According to the study, several southern German states, particularly Bavaria, are expected to have the strongest prospects for population growth due to their robust economies and strong labor markets. Women, older people, and people without German citizenship are more likely to be employed in these regions compared to others. The research concludes that competition for workers will become a significant demographic challenge, and regions must tailor their responses to the unique challenges and opportunities they face.
Policymakers are urged to focus on addressing structural challenges and regional disparities, offering tailored solutions with greater financial resources and flexibility for local authorities.
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