Can Russia meet Trump’s diesel demands?

President Donald Trump announced a potential 4.8 million tonnes of Russian diesel deliveries to the United States, sparking concerns over the feasibility of the arrangement. Trump claimed the fuel would arrive in stages, with initial shipments of over 300,000 tonnes immediately, followed by another 500,000 tonnes in November and up to 1 million tonnes shortly after. Overall, the deal could amount to 35.8 million barrels of diesel.

The offer comes amid strained relations between the U.S. and Russia, following a recent sanctions law and recent attacks on Russian refineries due to the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. Russian diesel exports have plummeted by nearly half this year, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) reporting a 30% reduction. Analysts argue that the limited supply and redirection of fuel exports may prevent significant price drops for U.S. consumers.

Trump's announcement was made following a telephone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who expressed readiness to supply oil and oil products to the American and global markets. The deal, however, remains uncertain, as neither the U.S. nor Russian government has disclosed who will pay for the fuel or when the later shipments will commence. The temporary licence exempting Russian diesel from U.S. sanctions until April 2027 is another unique aspect of the arrangement.