Brazil 2026 elections: Polls have Bolsonaro up in the runoff. Can Lula still win?

Brazil is set to hold a runoff election between incumbent President Luiz Inácio "Lula" da Silva, of the center-left party, and far-right Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. The runoff will take place on October 25, following Flávio Bolsonaro's surprise victory in the first round. The first round saw Lula garner 45.1% of the vote, while his rival received 47%, despite the latter needing more than 50% to secure a first-round win.

This runoff election follows a period of intense political campaigning, during which Bolsonaro's Liberal Party made significant gains in congressional and gubernatorial elections, winning the most governorships and representing a strong anti-establishment sentiment. Analysts attribute Bolsonaro's victory to a combination of anti-establishment sentiment, dissatisfaction with the government, and Bolsonaro's adept use of social media to sway voters.

While Lula's supporters hope to mobilize abstainers and persuading voters to vote for him instead of Bolsonaro, the analysts agree that Lula's chances of winning the runoff are slim, given the historical precedent and the massive support Bolsonaro enjoys among the electorate.