A brutal reality check for the housing market

After last week's final national auction clearance rate dropped to 45.4%, the lowest since July 2026, this week's figures are no better. This weekend's preliminary clearance rate increased slightly to 48.8%, a small improvement from the previous week's revised downward figure of 45.4%. This marks the second consecutive weekend where the combined capital city preliminary clearance rate has fallen below the 50% mark, returning to levels seen in mid-to-late June.

Melbourne led the auction activity this week, with 707 homes sold, a 6.2% increase from the previous week but 43.4% fewer auctions compared to the same period last year. The preliminary clearance rate in Melbourne stood at 54.8%, a 4.2 percentage point rise from last week's revised figure of 50.4%.

Over the first six weeks of spring, Melbourne's preliminary clearance rate averaged 45.5%, matching the winter average of 45.4%. In Sydney, 653 homes were auctioned this weekend, more than double the previous week's volume, but down 33.9% compared to the same week a year ago. The preliminary clearance rate in Sydney was 52.9%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous week's revised figure of 49.3%, marking a 10-week low.

Brisbane experienced a surge in auctions, with 201 homes sold, a 45.7% increase from last week and 58.3% more than the same week a year ago. However, this rise in volumes has put pressure on the preliminary clearance rate, with only 21.4% of auctions resulting in a successful sale, the lowest reading since April 2020 during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The weak auction results are continuing to impact home values, with Cotality's daily dwelling values index declining by 6.9% from the April peak across the five major capital city markets. Given the recent rate increase from the Reserve Bank and the federal budget's changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, there is more downside to come. Overleveraged property owners are facing a harsh reality check.