This Is Not a War for Ukrainian Territory, It Is a War Against the West

Reports of territory reclaimed by Ukraine and captives of the occupying forces being taken prisoner offer encouraging news, yet they fall short of altering the broader scenario. While the acquisition of each square kilometer is undoubtedly progress, it is crucial to maintain that this is not a dispute over land. Our ongoing coverage of the conflict, accessible via the @Kyivpost_official, underscores this perspective.

The ongoing full-scale war, which has been raging since 2022, is not a struggle for Ukrainian territory but rather a battle waged within Ukraine's borders. The Kremlin's aim is to secure territorial gains to substantiate its policy and portray them as proof of achieving its stated goals. In truth, the aim is to bring Ukraine under political domination.

This subjugation does not necessarily entail full annexation nor must it be achieved swiftly. Putin has steadfastly adhered to his vision articulated at Munich in 2007 and Bucharest in 2008. The ultimate objective is to rebuild a sphere of influence over the former Soviet Union, a territory whose dissolution the Russian leader deems one of the most tragic events of the 20th century.

The Kremlin persists in its pursuit of these goals, free from the constraints of democratic processes, thereby simplifying its implementation. Russia possesses a diverse arsenal – ranging from political sway, disinformation, sabotage, and economic pressure to drones, missiles, or the air attacks that have left Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities in turmoil.

Transforming Ukraine's capital into a place increasingly difficult to inhabit, breaching the airspace of NATO countries and Moldova, and undermining the confidence in the functioning of military alliances all serve to instill fear, weaken unity, and polarize societies in countries perceived as adversaries or even enemies by Moscow.

Warnings from NATO intelligence agencies about an anticipated escalation by Russia and the potential for larger-scale sabotage serve as the most explicit indications of this threat. Can Russia succeed in fulfilling its objectives? The outcome hinges on the resolve of both the West and Ukraine. One crucial element is the US policy towards Russia, Belarus, and Ukraine.

Regrettably, there has been a noticeable inconsistency in this regard. While there have been declarations of permanent US military bases in Poland, the retention of a military presence in Lithuania, and Trump’s signature on sanctions introduced by Lindsey Graham, the actual utilization of these sanctions against Russia remains uncertain.

Washington has loosened certain sanctions, including those impacting Belarusian potash fertilizers. Moreover, the discussions between Witkoff, Kushner, and Putin further complicate optimism, not to mention the notion of reopening the Nord Stream pipelines. The absurdity of accusing Ukraine for the ongoing fuel crisis should also be noted.

Several conclusions can still be drawn. The US military presence in NATO's eastern-flank nations serves as a red line for Russia, delineated by Washington. Simultaneously, the United States does not preclude economic cooperation, encompassing areas like fuel or Belarusian potash fertilizers. Preserving only minimal support for Ukraine might be interpreted by the Kremlin as a green light to continue its actions in Ukraine.

Russia harbors no genuine desire for peace talks, a fact Washington is well aware of. The US is also cognizant of the challenges Ukraine may encounter during the upcoming winter. This situation can be viewed as a carrot-and-stick approach: the US will uphold its military presence in Eastern Europe, while simultaneously offering incentives to pursue mutual business interests.

While the US may endeavor to de-escalate the situation to maintain peace and stability in European NATO countries, this would be naive. Russia operates under a distinct logic, one that transcends the rationality considered acceptable by Europe or the United States. The most compelling evidence of this is the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

The fact that this is a war fought on Ukrainian soil, rather than a war over Ukrainian land, also signifies a conflict involving the West – particularly NATO and EU countries on the eastern flank. This is where the majority of hostile acts of sabotage and other forms of hybrid warfare are taking place. Bringing Ukraine into a state of subjugation or reducing it to a severely weakened state is one objective.

Weakening, or even dismantling, Western alliances is another. A conventional war in Europe currently appears improbable. However, it is important to remember that war is an extension of politics and a tool for advancing political goals. There is little doubt that Russia will persist in pursuing its objectives with the same consistency it has demonstrated thus far.

Tanks and missiles are means to an end, just as sabotage, disinformation, economic influence, and acts of subversion are. Countering this necessitates genuine unity within NATO and the EU, which remains evident, along with continuous support for Ukraine. This support is contingent upon the backing of both Western partners and the foreign policy pursued by Kyiv.

In this context, it would also be beneficial to avoid conflicts with partners that have proven reliable. Only decisive and unequivocal action can establish the conditions for an effective response to Russia and help prevent further escalation.