The West’s Azerbaijan Paradox

On September 25, three US senators – Peter Welch, Thom Tillis and Tim Kaine – sent a clear message to Azerbaijan. They urged Secretary of State Marco Rubio to make the release of political prisoners a condition for a stronger partnership with Baku. The senators called for the immediate release of Ali Karimli, the leader of the Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, among other prominent prisoners. While seven other names were mentioned, the true count of political prisoners is closer to 300.

This intervention is timely and should be supported by both sides of the Atlantic. Azerbaijan is one of the world's most authoritarian countries, but the real question for Western governments is whether they can build a durable strategic partnership with a regime that imprisons those committed to integrating with the democratic West. Can the West truly partner with the same regime that helps Russia evade sanctions, remove oligarchs, and strengthens ties with China?

The European Parliament has already answered this question more clearly than most. It condemned Karimli's detention and called for his immediate and unconditional release. The EU should consider measures against officials responsible for repression and base future partnership agreements on tangible human rights and rule of law improvements.

However, European executive leadership has been less forceful in response, which is damaging as it is perceived by the Aliyev regime. They now believe they can disregard human rights concerns, as there will be no meaningful pressure on them. Western policy towards Azerbaijan is based on pragmatic calculations: energy supplies to Europe, a strategic position between Europe and Central Asia, and a role in the Armenia peace settlement.

Yet, the regime is extremely repressive but not very stable. In the past decade, there have been numerous riots in various cities, and the regime has struggled to maintain order despite billions spent on security forces. Protests, similar to those seen in India, Bangladesh, and Nepal, could erupt in larger cities like Baku if the situation worsens.

Azerbaijan's fate is not a choice between spontaneous uprisings and increasing authoritarianism. It is a country with a democratic civil opposition that has historically looked towards Europe, NATO, and the Euro-Atlantic community. Karimli has advocated Azerbaijan's integration with the European Union and has spoken out in support of Ukraine since Russia's invasion.

This makes Karimli's imprisonment a strategic issue for the West, not just a humanitarian one. If Azerbaijan becomes more democratic, Western governments should want democratic forces emerging from the transition to regard Europe, Britain, and the United States as partners. However, Azerbaijani democrats today see Western governments pursuing deeper relations with President Aliyev while suppressing democratic opposition.

Baku increasingly shows contempt for the West, and Aliyev has described the European Parliament in a negative light.