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President Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) is encountering growing political turmoil in the Mount Kenya region, as key figures are leaving the coalition that aided his 2022 presidential triumph. The most recent departures involve Githunguri MP Gathoni Wamuchomba and Nakuru Senator Tabitha Karanja, sparking questions about the ruling party’s fading appeal among its former supporters.

As the 2027 General Election looms, these defections indicate a widening distance between the presidency and the region that once propelled Ruto’s ascent to power. Although defections do not always correlate with a decline in voter support, the increasing number of leaders abandoning UDA threatens the party’s grassroots networks, election outreach efforts, and unity on the political stage in Mount Kenya.

Wamuchomba’s switch from the UDA to the parliamentary race highlights the strain on the ruling party as it strives to maintain support in Kiambu County and the broader Mount Kenya region. Wamuchomba has expressed dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of its leaders and responsiveness to the needs of ordinary Kenyans, leading her to seek re-election outside UDA.

Karanja’s departure further compounds the party’s challenges. She announced her decision to join former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP), aiming to challenge Governor Susan Kihika in the 2027 elections. Karanja’s move is notable as she was elected under the UDA banner, making her defection another instance of an elected official seeking an alternative political platform after entering office under Ruto’s party.

These exits underscore the difficulty UDA faces in keeping leaders whose political allegiances have shifted since joining the coalition. They also suggest that discontent is not confined to a single constituency or individual. The departures by Wamuchomba and Karanja follow a broader trend of political realignments involving elected leaders from Mount Kenya who have distanced themselves from UDA or are exploring different political avenues.

Notable figures such as Nyandarua Governor Kiarie Badilisha’s move to DCP, Murang’a Governor Irungu Kang’ata’s ambiguous political stance, and Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro’s shift to the People’s Party of Kenya and presidential aspirations, all reflect the uncertainty surrounding UDA’s dominance in the region. The significance of these defections extends beyond the sheer number of politicians leaving; their departure could impact the party’s ability to mobilize voters, secure campaign funding, and coordinate messaging.

However, not all leaders who have criticized UDA have formally defected. The nature of political disagreements varies, and some supporters may still vote for Ruto in 2027, even if their representatives have moved on. Ruto’s deteriorating relationship with Gachagua, following the latter’s impeachment in October 2024, is central to the ongoing realignment.

Gachagua has leveraged this rift to promote DCP as an alternative to Ruto’s control, arguing that the region’s interests have been overlooked. The 2026 Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election exemplified the challenge UDA faces, with DCP candidate Sammy Douglas Kamau Waweru winning a decisive victory over UDA candidate Samuel Muchina Nyaga.

While a single by-election cannot predict the voting pattern in 2027, it demonstrated that UDA is contending with opposition parties that understand local structures and can mobilize voters effectively. As more elected leaders explore other parties, Gachagua’s challenge to Ruto’s authority transcends personal disputes, becoming a broader contest for Mount Kenya’s political allegiance.

This fragmentation exposes a critical weakness in UDA’s position: the potential disconnect between its organizational strength and the loyalty of its supporters. Mount Kenya was a vital component of Ruto’s presidential victory, and retaining a strong presence in the region will be essential for his re-election campaign. However, defections do not definitively indicate that Ruto has lost the region.

Some politicians switch parties to enhance their nomination prospects or improve their chances in specific seats, while voters may remain supportive of the president despite internal disputes.