Nuclear war and malicious use of AI threaten end of humanity by 2100, says Lancet assessment

A recent global risk assessment conducted by The Lancet Commission warns that humanity could face extinction by the year 2100 due to the malicious use of artificial intelligence (AI) or nuclear conflict. This assessment is part of a broader list of 17 major threats to human health over the next 75 years, which also includes factors such as cuts to aid spending by wealthy nations, the climate crisis, and childhood malnutrition.

Experts involved in the commission emphasized that these threats interact with one another, necessitating collective action to address them.

Christopher Murray, co-chair of the commission and director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington, stated that decisions made by leaders today will significantly impact the health and wellbeing of future generations. The commission evaluated each threat by modeling the potential loss of healthy years due to sickness, disability, or early death, known as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).

While the likelihood of malicious AI use or nuclear conflict remains low, their potential consequences are severe enough to potentially end humanity.

Among the 17 major threats, the report highlights the potential extinction caused by malicious AI, including bioweapons, and nuclear conflict with nuclear famine. Other threats that could result in over 1 billion cumulative DALYs and are considered "major catastrophic threats" include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, childhood malnutrition, climate breakdown, conventional conflicts, declining foreign aid, high alcohol consumption, high blood pressure, income inequality, low educational attainment, naturally occurring pandemics, obesity, poor mental health, smoking, and unhealthy aging.

The commission stressed that all the threats are interconnected, and addressing them simultaneously is crucial. To create their list, researchers modeled the number of years of good health that might be lost due to each threat based on current trajectories, a measure known as DALYs. The assessment found that limiting global heating to approximately 1.8°C (3.2°F) instead of allowing it to reach 4.4°C could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life from being lost.

Action to mitigate these risks should include investment in technological innovations and strengthening health systems. The Lancet Commission on 21st Century Global Threats to Health will update its assessment annually, incorporating new data and emerging hazards.