Latvia’s Pro-Ukraine Landslide Hides a Weakness Putin Could Exploit

Latvia recently concluded an election that its public broadcaster described as "a bit embarrassing," given the low voter turnout of 51.8%, the lowest since the nation's inaugural parliamentary election in 1993. The United List, led by Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, secured a significant victory, garnering 35.3% of the vote and 42 out of the 100 seats in the Saeima, Latvia's parliament.

This is the strongest single-party performance since Latvia regained independence. The election has highlighted Latvia's unusual combination of a robust government and a disengaged electorate, presenting both political and security challenges for the nation.

Latvia, a NATO frontline state with a population of 1.8 million, shares borders with Russia and Belarus, making its primary strategic objective to avoid isolation. This necessitates embedding NATO troops on Latvian soil, maintaining U.S. and Canadian strategic investments, closer integration with Poland and Nordic states, investing in defense infrastructure, and supporting Ukraine. Kulbergs has been given a mandate to continue a pro-Atlanticist policy, with a likely coalition promising support for these initiatives.

However, Latvia's defense strategy also hinges on a cohesive and politically engaged society. The National Security Concept emphasizes that Latvia's existence depends on a responsible attitude from all citizens towards the state and its security. Defense Minister Raivis Melnis stressed that the first step is resilience, which lies in the resilience of people and the country. Nevertheless, the low voter turnout exposes weaknesses in the social foundations crucial to Latvia's resilience.

Latvia's unique demographic landscape, with a significant Russian-speaking population, complicates the security dilemma. While Russian speakers are not uniformly pro-Russian, some have become alienated from the mainstream political and media environment, leading to either abstention or protest voting. This alienation creates vulnerabilities that Russia could potentially exploit, as it does not require Latvia's Russian speakers to become a fifth column.

To maintain national resilience, Latvia must strike a delicate balance between restricting Russian influence, dismantling Soviet remnants, and ensuring that Russian-speaking citizens feel a sense of ownership in the state. Kulbergs's landslide victory provides him with a strong mandate to continue Latvia's Atlanticist course.