IT stocks surge despite US immigration curbs

Indian IT stocks experienced a significant surge on Friday, with the Nifty IT index rising more than 3%. This increase was largely driven by investors dismissing concerns over the US government's decision to bar eight technology companies from participating in a program linked to employment-based green-card applications. Despite this new uncertainty, positive factors such as lower-than-estimated revenue run rates at OpenAI and solid earnings at Tata Consultancy Services contributed to a more optimistic sentiment.

The Nifty IT index's biggest single-day gain since August 28 was fueled by gains in companies like TCS, HCL Technologies, Infosys, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra. While TCS shares rose by 4.2%, other firms saw gains of around 3% to 2.7%. The rally can be attributed to factors beyond TCS's second-quarter results, which provided some reassurance on earnings resilience but did not indicate a clear demand inflexion, according to Kunal Bajaj, a research analyst at Choice Institutional Equities.

Bajaj explained that the rally reflects earnings resilience and easing concerns about AI disruption more than a fundamental recovery. He noted that OpenAI's lower-than-estimated revenue run rate, around $50 billion for the year, may also be easing AI-related concerns. This lower revenue run rate is likely to highlight opportunities in enterprise AI implementation, integration, and modernization.

Despite the Nifty IT index's decline of nearly 8% from its August highs, the surge on Friday was unexpected. Market participants had anticipated a sell-off following the US government's decision to suspend IT firms from the Permanent Labor Certification Programme, which allows skilled foreign workers to gain permanent residency.

However, most Indian IT firms in the US have already reduced their hiring of workers from outside the US due to tighter regulations and higher costs associated with H-1B visas. This limited the immediate impact of the PERM suspension on the Indian market.