Graphs, Data, Perspectives | How India’s growth rate keeps beating forecasts

In its latest monetary policy review, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has increased its projected GDP growth rate for the current fiscal year by 40 basis points to 7.1%. This revised projection suggests that the Indian economy is now expected to expand to 7.1% larger by the end of March 2027, compared to the level reached in March 2026.

Despite the various challenges, including geopolitical tensions and adverse weather conditions, India's economy has managed to consistently outperform the forecasts. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been conducting a survey of professional forecasters since September 2007. In the latest survey round, comprising 46 economists from various sectors, the median forecast for real Gross Value Added (GVA) was assessed.

The trend reveals that till FY23, actual GVA growth rates were usually lower than the initial forecasts. However, since FY23, the actual performance has been better than the forecasts. This shift can be attributed to the increased uncertainty and turbulence caused by global events such as the Russia-Ukraine war, crude oil crisis, and the US-Iran war, leading to more conservative forecasts from the RBI panel.