‘We don’t know where the bottom is:’ Republicans fret races in Trump country

Late September brought a wave of internal polling to top Republicans across House GOP leadership, political operations, and individual campaigns. This led to a surge of panic, revealing a harsh environment for the party in power, similar to typical midterms. In some areas, the scenarios were close to catastrophic, according to three people with direct knowledge, who wished to remain anonymous.

Seats in Kentucky, North Carolina, Nevada, and other areas where President Donald Trump won by 10 points or more in 2024 were now competitive. All three vulnerable GOP-held seats in Iowa appeared to be doomed, and many Republican incumbents who hadn't had to run serious races in years were also vulnerable, from Oklahoma to Wisconsin and beyond.

As Election Day approaches, the concerns are deepening, with Republicans beginning to brace for worst-case scenarios. Polls are not looking good, said retiring Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.). The scariest part is that no one knows where the bottom is, added a senior House Republican. The biggest fear among Republicans is that white working-class voters, central to the GOP coalition, might stay home or vote for Democrats due to high fuel prices and the war in Iran.

While the National Republican Congressional Committee and the Republican National Committee dismissed these concerns, top Republicans are taking notice. Speaker Johnson is visiting deep-red Kentucky for a fundraiser, and Trump is holding a rally in Tennessee to boost Republican Rep. Matt Van Epps' district. Even though Republicans argue the polls might be overemphasizing Democrats' advantage, the environment remains uncertain, and the GOP is doing everything they can to ensure they keep their House control.