Washington’s Green Cards Or Moscow’s Cheap Oil: India’s Strategic Tightrope

Indian External Affairs Minister Dr S. Jaishankar defended India's continued reliance on Russian crude oil on October 4, highlighting Moscow's support during difficult times. This assertion came after the US President Donald Trump signed the 'Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026' on September 18, allowing the US to impose secondary tariffs on countries buying Russian crude oil, including India and China.

Jaishankar maintained that India's decisions are based on national interest, and he acknowledged India's strategic autonomy in foreign policy. However, India is now seeking to balance its relationship with both Russia and the US.

The Trump administration recently suspended major tech firms from the US labor certification programme, effectively halting the processing of green card applications. The US is demanding that India work with it to build bridges with Trump over various demands. India faces a critical diplomatic era where energy is its single-largest import vulnerability.

Russian oil has been a cheap and plentiful lifeline for India, accounting for 35-40% of its total oil imports in August 2026, up from less than 2% in 2022. Indian firms spent $161 billion importing crude oil last year. Russian oil has helped keep inflation under control, saving billions in foreign currency and allowing for massive capital expenditures in public infrastructure.

However, the US is pressuring India to choose between Russian oil and working with them to build bridges with Trump. While India cannot compromise on its energy security, the country is also committed to deepening its strategic partnership with the US. The US sees India as an indispensable anchor for the Quad and maritime security in the Indian Ocean.

Despite the pressure, India must strike a balance between its energy needs and its diplomatic relationships with both Russia and the US while also maintaining a distinct channel with Moscow.