US failure to prepare for rise of quantum computers could be 'catastrophic' for economy, GAO warns

A recently released federal report from the US Government Accountability Office (GAO) warns that the development of Cryptographically Relevant Quantum Computers (CRQCs) could have catastrophic consequences for the US economy and security. These quantum computers, which can process data using qubits, have the potential to break encryption and crack billions of passwords, resulting in a wave of financial crimes if they fall into the wrong hands.

The GAO's analysis echoes concerns from technology and cybersecurity experts about a hypothetical scenario known as "Q-Day," in which quantum computers are used to compromise sensitive data. While experts say the probability of a CRQC being built within the next decade is low, there is a significant risk that bad actors could be harvesting large amounts of encrypted data right now and waiting for CRQCs to decrypt it.

To address these concerns, the GAO has made 89 recommendations to more than 20 federal agencies to develop inventories of potentially vulnerable cryptography and to identify funding for post-quantum cryptography. However, the report only shares the broad recommendations, as the details are considered sensitive. While 12 agencies agreed with the GAO's recommendations, one disagreed with several, and the US Department of the Interior did not provide a response.

Despite the sobering implications of the report, the GAO notes that experts believe the development of CRQCs in the next 10 years is unlikely. However, the potential for bad actors to harvest encrypted data and wait for CRQCs to decrypt it poses a significant threat to federal operations and sensitive information.