Trump promises 'big news' on diesel as prices near record highs

European wholesale natural gas prices retreated slightly from their two-week peak on Friday, as trading desks digested remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump indicating no pre-midterm strikes on Iran. The Dutch benchmark contract fell 1% to €78.00 per MWh, easing off weekly gains that had pushed it near the €80 mark. In the UK, the comparable wholesale gas contract slipped 1.0% to 193 pence per therm.

Despite this minor setback, both contracts remain poised for a second consecutive weekly rise, supported by ongoing threats to Middle Eastern maritime security. Trump's statements provided an immediate reprieve from fears of a military escalation before the November elections, but Reuters data shows Iranian missile and drone strikes on commercial vessels around the Strait of Hormuz reached their highest weekly total last week since the conflict began.

These strikes have hindered LNG shipments through the crucial maritime route, resulting in higher war-risk insurance premiums and longer, costlier rerouting of tankers. With storage levels at 73% of capacity, cooler weather forecasts could accelerate winter heating demand and power generation, leaving European underground storage caverns near their lowest capacity for this time of year.

Gas network operators warn that low LNG inflows may force storage levels below 30% by late winter, exposing the continent to potential severe cold snaps.