Trump promised to lower prices for Americans. Here's what the data shows.

President Donald Trump ran on a campaign platform in 2024 promising to reduce the cost of living for Americans, including lowering gasoline prices below $2 per gallon and offering mortgage rates of 2%. However, two years into his presidency, Americans are facing significantly higher costs for essential items like food, gas, and housing. As the midterm elections approach, many voters are frustrated by the apparent discrepancy between Trump's promises and the actual economic realities they face.

According to a recent CBS News poll, nine out of ten Americans cite prices as the top factor in their perception of the economy, despite solid economic growth and low unemployment rates. The financial difficulties Americans face are not solely due to Trump's administration, as five years of post-pandemic inflation have contributed to the current situation. Nevertheless, Trump's campaign promises and policies have fueled voter expectations of lower costs.

Some of Trump's policies, such as tariffs, have unfortunately exacerbated inflation. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York suggests that tariffs added approximately 2.9 percentage points to inflation by February 2025. Moreover, Trump's decision to attack Iran in February 2025 has led to an ongoing conflict that has disrupted oil shipments and caused a sharp increase in oil, gas, and diesel prices.

Economists like Greg Daco of EY-Parthenon attribute this to the administration's decisions to intervene in Iran and impose tariffs.

Despite these challenges, the White House claims that Trump's policies have "stopped Biden's inflation crisis" while creating jobs and economic growth. White House spokeswoman Taylor Rogers stated that the president's agenda will continue to deliver economic benefits in the coming years. Trump himself has highlighted his accomplishments, including signing tax cuts for working-class families, cutting prescription drug costs, adding jobs, securing trade deals, and boosting the stock market.

However, the reality for many Americans is that grocery costs have risen 4% since November 2024, following a 23% increase over the previous four years. The White House argues that voters who support Trump will see cheaper groceries, while energy prices are expected to decline under his leadership.