TrendForce warns of higher notebook prices and weaker demand in 2027

TrendForce warns of potential higher notebook prices and weaker demand in 2027, as component costs continue to rise. The report projects a decline in global notebook shipments, which could range from low to high-single digits, depending on manufacturers' response to the increasing expenses. The primary risk for the market in 2027 shifts from supply constraints to the impact of higher component costs on demand.

Analysts say that if DRAM and CPU prices remain high, notebook brands may be forced to pass more costs onto consumers, potentially extending replacement cycles and pushing shipment declines into the high-single-digit range. In 2026, shipments were supported by improved CPU availability, early purchases, and earlier replacement demand.

However, as lower-cost inventories deplete, brands will face direct pressure from rising CPU, DRAM, and SSD prices. Approximately 68% of the bill of materials for a mainstream notebook with a US$900 price tag consists of CPU, DRAM, and SSD costs. If these component costs continue to rise, brands may choose to increase retail prices, absorb the increases, or reduce specifications, which could make their products less competitive.

DRAM supply is expected to stay tight due to AI-related demand, while PC DRAM faces limited supply growth. NAND Flash supply constraints are expected to ease in the second half of 2027 with new capacity coming online. With these factors in mind, brands are unlikely to maintain pricing, specifications, and profitability simultaneously in 2027.

The outcome will largely depend on how much manufacturers pass on higher costs to consumers. Additionally, if tariff pressures remain low, manufacturers may consider moving notebook production back to China to reduce costs. China's share of global notebook production is projected to rise from 76% in 2025 to 79% in 2026 and potentially exceed 80% in 2027.