Taiwan Dollar: Trade strength but losses capped against US Dollar – Commerzbank
Commerzbank analysts note Taiwan’s September trade surplus hit a record USD23.6bn, with exports surging 60.9% year-on-year on strong AI-related demand. The Central Bank of the Republic of China may lean more hawkish if inflation’s uptrend persists.
Commerzbank analysts highlight Taiwan's record September trade surplus of USD23.6bn, fuelled by a 60.9% year-on-year surge in exports, particularly in AI-related goods. The Central Bank of the Republic of China (CBC) may adopt a more hawkish stance on inflation if the upward trend continues. The USD/TWD pair rose 0.3% to 31.90, but gains may be limited due to the central bank's FX intervention in September.
The trade surplus from January to September grew 61.9% year-on-year to USD160.6bn, surpassing the 2025 full-year target of USD157.1bn. The stronger-than-expected trade surplus bolsters the CBC's confidence in Taiwan's growth prospects, potentially prompting the bank to focus more on inflation at the upcoming meeting on December 17th.
During September, USD/TWD climbed 0.3% to 31.90, propelled by a stronger USD, higher oil prices, and foreign portfolio withdrawals. Notably, foreign investors sold USD2.6bn worth of Taiwanese shares in a single day, marking the largest weekly outflow in nearly a month. Over the past month, USD/TWD has been range-bound between 31.65 and 31.95.
Any further upside for the pair may be capped by potential CBC intervention, as the central bank disclosed selling up to USD1.1bn in FX markets in September.
Written by urgent.news from FXStreet's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
