Scarlet Spreadsheet: What the analytics say about Ohio State vs. Maryland

On October 3, 2026, Malik Washington of the Maryland Terrapins prepared for their game against the Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium in Lincoln, Nebraska. Scarlet Spreadsheet will provide a comprehensive analysis of Ohio State’s games throughout the 2026 season using various analytical models based on underlying numbers and metrics.

In their upcoming home game against Maryland, Ohio State faces the Terrapins in a crucial three-game stretch against ranked opponents. However, Ohio State has a strong track record against Maryland, having never lost to them since they joined the Big Ten in 2014. Ryan Day has dominated Maryland in their past meetings, and Ohio State has maintained a winning percentage of 100% against the Terrapins since their first encounter in 2014.

Based on the Football Power Index (FPI), Ohio State ranks No. 1 with a FPI of 28.8, while Maryland ranks No. 78 with a FPI of -2.5. Ohio State has a projected 10.1-2.6 win-loss record, a 21.6% win out percentage, and a 44.8% chance of winning conference games. Meanwhile, Maryland has a projected 3.9-8.1 win-loss record, a 0% win out percentage, and a 0% chance of winning conference games.

The FPI Matchup Predictor shows Ohio State winning with a 99% probability and a projected margin of 30.5 points. The computer models also agree, with the Sagarin Rankings placing Ohio State at No. 3 (94.66) and Maryland at No. 78 (67.53). The Power Rank further supports Ohio State's superiority, with Ohio State at 27.76 (1st) and Maryland at -1.28 (69th).

Massey Ratings further solidify Ohio State's dominance, with a rating of 8.99 (6th) and an EPA of 69.60 (4th) in offense, while Maryland's rating is 7.23 (75th) with an EPA of 56.70 (70th) in offense. The Advanced Metrics put Ohio State’s offense vs. Maryland's defense at 1st with an EPA/Pass of 0.49, while Maryland's offense vs. Ohio State's defense is ranked 114th with an EPA/Pass of -0.14.

Historically, Ohio State has won all nine meetings against Maryland dating back to 2014, scoring an average of 55 points per game with an average margin of victory of over 35 points. The most lopsided game between the two programs occurred in 2019, where Ohio State won 73-14. The closest contest was in 2018, with Ohio State winning 52-51 at College Park. Ohio State's largest margin of victory against Maryland is 59 points, achieved in both 2019 (73-14) and 2016 (62-3).