Renewed surge in violence

The Centre for Research and Security Studies reported a disturbing surge in violence in Pakistan during the third quarter of 2026, with at least 1,415 people killed and 558 injured in 385 incidents, marking an 83 percent increase in violence-linked fatalities. This sharp reversal from earlier declines in violence during the first two quarters highlights the urgency of addressing the security crisis.

The majority of these fatalities occurred in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), bordering Afghanistan, where militant organizations, particularly the TTP and BLA, operate. Baluchistan alone accounted for 98 percent of all fatalities, with a shocking 213 percent rise in violence compared to the previous quarter. The geographical focus of violence demands a tailored security strategy, taking into account the unique political, economic, and social contexts of these provinces.

Baluchistan's situation is particularly alarming, as fatalities more than tripled from 265 in the second quarter to 829, and violent incidents surged from 186 to 173. While counter-terrorism operations remain crucial, they cannot address the underlying drivers of violence, such as legitimate political grievances, poor governance, and economic deprivation.

A sustainable solution requires better intelligence, stronger border management, effective policing, and closer coordination among security institutions. Additionally, Pakistan must address the root causes of militancy by engaging with representatives of the Baloch people and exerting diplomatic pressure on Kabul to prevent Afghan territory from being used for attacks against Pakistan.

Without a comprehensive national strategy, any temporary reduction in violence may be followed by another cycle of escalation and loss.