Port of LA, key US point for China imports has best-ever quarter despite trade uncertainty

The Port of Los Angeles, the United States' largest container port and its primary gateway for imports from China and other Asian nations, recorded its busiest three-month period on record from July to September. Port executive Gene Seroka described it as "the best quarter in port history," with over three million TEUs processed.

TEUs measure cargo capacity, with each unit equivalent to a standard 20-foot shipping container. The surge in activity was attributed to reduced tariffs from 2025 levels, strong consumer demand ahead of festival season, and ongoing operational challenges at the Suez and Panama canals.

September saw a 19% year-on-year increase in imports, while exports rose by 10%. However, outbound volumes remained weaker than usual, reflecting the difficulties faced by American farmers and manufacturers. Despite China's share of imports through the LA port decreasing from around 60% in 2018 to a projected 40% in 2026, it remains the port's largest source, followed by Vietnam. US imports from China reached $308 billion in 2025, a nearly 30% drop, while imports from Vietnam surged 42% in the same period.

Harvard Business School professor Willy Shih noted that countries like Vietnam and Mexico have seen significant growth in their imports to the United States, but they still depend on Chinese intermediate goods. Companies are rearranging final assembly steps, as upstream dependence on China remains. Shih discussed the recent meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump, highlighting that economic outcomes were modest, and both sides decided to "kick the can down the road."

They agreed to extend the Busan trade truce until January 10, 2027, launch the Board of Trade mechanism, and list non-sensitive products worth up to $30 billion each that could be eligible for tariff reductions. However, Shih argued that the situation for traders remains uncertain due to the mismatch between the US's "transactional approach" and China's "strategic approach."

For stable planning, Shih emphasized the need for a longer horizon with a stable set of rules, which currently eludes both nations as they await further leaders' meetings.