PH-Bersatu pact has no chance against Umno-PAS, says analyst

Australian James Chin from the University of Tasmania said the failure of Bersatu in the PRN Negeri Sembilan poll has pushed the party to seek cooperation with Pakatan Harapan (PH). It is expected that PH and Bersatu will have a harder time competing against the alliance of Umno and PAS, if both parties reach an agreement, said Chin.

Both are now cramped and see cooperation as the best path to face Umno-PAS. However, if Umno and PAS reach an understanding, PH-Bersatu cooperation will fail, except in DAP areas, he told FMT. Chin said PH-Bersatu cooperation, despite their political rivalry, aims to ensure a head-to-head contest to avoid a vote split among voters opposing Umno and PAS.

Bersatu, founded with Muhyiddin Yassin, previously cooperated with PH before playing a crucial role in the fall of the ruling coalition-led government in February 2020, leading Muhyiddin to take over as prime minister. Although BN-PN cooperation succeeded in the PRN Negeri Sembilan last October, winning 25 out of 28 seats, PH won the remaining 11 seats.

Bersatu suffered a massive defeat in all 24 seats contested. At the PRN Melaka poll last October, BN won 21 seats, PH five, and PN two, in a tight contest among the three alliances in all 28 parliamentary seats. Important but not decisive, Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid from the University of Sains Malaysia (USM) said Bersatu could help PH win additional votes, especially in 10 of the 21 seats won by BN in 2021 with a narrow majority.

These seats included Serkam (79 votes majority), Pengkalan Batu (131), Duyong (200), Ahmad Fauzi Abdul Hamid. Tanjung Bidara (364), Gadek (559), Durian Tunggal (559), Paya Rumput (629), Pantai Kundor (827), Rembia (860) and Kelebang (876). Fauzi said Bersatu could contribute the Malay-Islam votes PH needs to overcome the opposition in marginal seats, including at the federal level.

However, he said Bersatu needs PH more than the other way around because Muhyiddin-led Bersatu wants to avoid a massive defeat like the one it suffered at PRN Negeri Sembilan. While PH might benefit from Bersatu cooperation, the party is not a must-have partner. PH can still move without Bersatu, but if Bersatu stands alone in Melaka, the PRN Negeri Sembilan result may repeat, he said.

PH can still move forward without PH, but if Bersatu competes alone in Melaka, the PRN Negeri Sembilan outcome may repeat, Chin said. The PRN Melaka is scheduled for November 14.