Pashinyan’s Nuclear U-Turn Gives Moscow an Opening in Armenia

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev issued a stern warning to Armenia on October 4, suggesting that force might be used if Moscow fails to achieve its goals through peaceful means. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, seemingly reacting to the Kremlin's tough rhetoric, announced the suspension of a nuclear cooperation deal with the United States and agreed to have Russia's Rosatom build the nation's next-generation reactor.

Armenia had recently become more defiant of Russia, its traditional geopolitical overlord, and Pashinyan's government had downgraded security ties with Moscow while trying to shift the Armenian economy away from the Russia-led Eurasian Economic Union toward the European Union.

Russia, Armenia's main trade partner, does not wish to lose its influence in the South Caucasus. Moscow has attempted to steer Armenia back into a stable Russian orbit, imposing bans on Armenian imports in a manner that violates the free-trade rules of the EAEU. In late September, Rosatom's chief Alexei Likhachev visited Yerevan to revive the company's chances of securing a contract to build a new nuclear plant to replace the aging Metsamor facility.

Armenian officials had previously been leaning towards replacing Metsamor with American-built small modular nuclear reactors (SMRs), but Pashinyan's stance on the nuclear plant issue changed dramatically after Likhachev's visit. On October 1, Pashinyan reportedly echoed Likhachev's position that SMRs would be insufficient to meet Armenia's growing electricity needs, suggesting a Russian VVER-1000 technology-based 1-megawatt plant might be a better solution. A final decision on the matter is expected in the coming months.