Los valores más expuestos al adelanto electoral

The early general election call in Spain for November 29 has alerted investors this week due to the implications a possible government change may have on stock market performance. Experts believe the PSOE might lose the elections, according to Alantra Equities. Both the center-right PP and Vox have won recent autonomous elections, suggesting a similar outcome for the next general elections, which could also occur.

This creates a period of uncertainty, but may also end the current parliamentary deadlock. Antonio Castelo of iBroker points out that investors would prefer a majority capable of approving budgets, providing regulatory stability, and maintaining credible public accounts. Prolonged negotiations or a newly blocked Parliament would trigger a different response, the expert warns.

Population growth driven by high migration flows has boosted Spain's GDP in recent years. Analysts expect migration to slow down with a change in government, as Vox could hold the key to a potential coalition with the PP, limiting the potential growth of GDP. However, a new government could promote policies more favorable to businesses, supporting investment and corporate confidence in sectors like artificial intelligence and data centers, electrification, renewables, and infrastructure, while controlling the fiscal deficit and addressing the primary deficit problem.

In real estate, the PP is expected to support new housing construction, boosting employment and correcting the supply shortage, which would alleviate access issues. This should maintain credit growth aligned with nominal GDP or even above it. This factor has encouraged real estate stocks in the stock market, expecting a more liberal policy and a boost in construction if a right-wing government is elected, according to Ignacio Cantos of Abante.

The electoral scenario may determine leadership more than the Ibex direction, according to Manuel Pinto, XTB's chief analyst. He acknowledges the impact on sectors like real estate. Real estate stocks like Merlin Properties and Colonial initially reacted positively but later flattened. Merlin's exposure to data centers makes it sensitive to the regulatory project requiring at least 80% of electricity consumption to be covered by renewable generation.

A possible liberalization could facilitate project development and reduce associated energy supply demands, according to Pinto. Colonial could also benefit from reduced uncertainty over Socimis tax regimes. In both companies, interest rates, financing, and rental evolution will remain decisive. For developers such as Neinor Homes and Metrovacesa, the new government's policies to facilitate land, expedite licenses, and promote residential construction could benefit them.

However, Castelo notes that many housing decisions depend on autonomous communities and municipalities, not the national government. Infrastructure companies like Sacyr and FCC could see improvement in governability and investment unlocking with a liberal government, according to iBroker. ACS also benefits from international business, reducing the relative impact of Spanish elections.

In finance, entities with more business in Spain would directly benefit from a possible reduction or elimination of the special levy on the sector (financial transaction tax). CaixaBank, with the highest exposure, could see increased profitability and shareholder returns if the tax is reduced, as it holds an 18% stake in the bank via the FROB, valued at around 16 billion euros at market prices. Other banks like Sabadell and Unicaja have significant exposure to the domestic business sector.