Gjorde plutselig Nobel-byks

On Friday at 11 AM, the Norwegian Nobel Committee announced the winner of this year's Nobel Peace Prize. Over the course of the night, a new favorite surged to become the most likely recipient of the peace prize among the major prediction markets, Polymarket and Kalshi. At 7:50 AM on Friday, the probability of Russian opposition leader Yulia Navalnaya winning the peace prize jumped to 32 percent on Polymarket.

She is the widow of the late Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny. In total, $1,523 million has been staked on her winning on Polymarket. On the betting site Kalshi, the probability was also around 30-32 percent. Yulia Navalnaya was not among the names expected to be in the traditionals favorites before this year's peace prize.

Alexei Navalny died in Russian custody in 2024. He was most likely murdered with a nerve agent, according to France, Britain, Germany, Sweden, and the Netherlands. Last year, Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado won. In the run-up to the announcement, betting markets saw a surge with Machado's odds rising from under 4 percent to a clear favorite.

A day before the prize winner was announced, Machado skyrocketed from under 4 percent to a clear favorite. According to Polymarket, there was a 69 percent chance she would win just one hour before the prize was announced. After the announcement, the Nobel Institute launched an investigation into what had happened. The institute's director, Kristian Berg Harpviken, said it was most likely a "digital leak."

In an interview with VG four months after the scandal, Nobel Institute's director Kristian Berg Harpviken said it was clearly an intrusion. "It is not foolish to think a state actor," he told VG.