Cuál es el nivel de la prima de riesgo de Francia que arrastra a toda Europa
Los analistas empiezan a hablar del contagio a la deuda de otros países como España y al euro. Leer
The latest developments in the European debt market since the start of October have seen France's political and fiscal uncertainty spilling over to other countries and even the euro itself. Analysts at Goldman Sachs have noted that the vulnerability of the euro to stress in the sovereign debt market is still present, with France's bonds being a clear point of contagion from the peripheral debt since October 1st.
This has accelerated the depreciation of the euro, which fell 6% against the dollar for every 100 basis points increase in the average cost of European debt.
The situation has been exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Iran since February, which has had a cumulative impact on the euro, pushing it from 1.19 to 1.12 dollars due to a 165 basis point rise in French debt costs, 130 in Italy and 100 in Spain. However, the recent concern is the potential contagion from France's crisis, particularly due to its 5% deficit and presidential elections in 2027, which could hand power to Marine Le Pen.
Investors are demanding higher returns on French bonds and are worried about Paris implementing less integrated policies in the Eurozone.
The situation is not yet alarming, as France's risk premium (the cost differential between its bonds and those of Germany) stands at 140 basis points, far from the levels seen in other countries during the euro crisis. However, analysts at TS Lombard warn that a signal of trouble will arise if this premium exceeds 200 basis points.
The European Central Bank (ECB) is under pressure to do something to maintain control over the bond market and avoid excessive weakening of the euro. The bank could choose to change its language to calm the market, reduce its bond reduction pace, or use the transmission mechanism protection instrument (TPI) to acquire distressed debt of troubled countries if the market does not respond to its interest rate signals.
Meanwhile, some analysts anticipate another consequence of the French crisis for the ECB: a slowdown in potential interest rate hikes.
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