Central banks face test. Will they be good cops or bond villains?
LONDON: A standoff between central banks and their cash-strapped governments may well be looming as an intensifying bond market crunch reopens questions about the political independence of the banks well beyond their interest-rate policy.
Central banks find themselves in a precarious position as a bond market crunch intensifies, potentially exposing the limits of their political independence. While central banks have shied away from expanding their sovereign debt holdings, which contributed to public borrowing over the past decade, the current tightening of bond markets could force them to either implement fiscal tightening or face political backlash.
With numerous elections in the United States, France, Italy, and Spain looming, spending cuts are unlikely, leaving central banks in a difficult spot.
Central banks are attempting to navigate the situation by maintaining a cautious approach. While they acknowledge the need for normalisation of bond-packed balance sheets, they also want to retain the option of temporary fixes in case of market malfunctions or unexpected shocks. However, the challenge lies in distinguishing between programmes aimed at market functioning and those intended for monetary stimulus.
Bank for International Settlements (BIS) chief Pablo Hernandez de Cos has outlined principles for using emergency tools, emphasizing the importance of distinguishing between these two types of interventions.
The key issue is that central banks may inadvertently contribute to the deterioration of debt markets even when there is no acute crisis. Recent global bond selloffs indicate that debt markets can experience stress even in the absence of a global shock similar to the Covid-19 pandemic or the 2008 banking crisis. In this scenario, monetary policymakers could find themselves in a precarious position, potentially blurring the lines between backstops, monetary policy, and direct government support.
Governments may come to expect central banks to step in and bail them out, especially given the rising government debt service bills and the challenges posed by ageing demographics and increasing geopolitical tensions.
International Monetary Fund head Kristalina Georgieva has warned against central banks taking on this role. She has criticized those who act as "monetary cowboys" and urge governments to deliver credible fiscal consolidation plans instead of relying on central banks to bail them out. With global government debt projected to exceed annual global GDP by 2030, it is crucial for governments to address their fiscal challenges directly, rather than relying on temporary fixes from central banks.
Written by urgent.news from New Straits Times's reporting — not their text. Machine-written — may contain errors; check the original before relying on it.
