AI hype meets revenue reality: OpenAI figures fall US$20b short of earlier reports

OpenAI is reporting a significant shortfall in annualized revenue, falling about US$20 billion short of earlier estimates, according to the Financial Times. This revelation has raised concerns about the sustainability of the AI business. Documents shared with OpenAI’s financial backers indicate that the company's annualized revenue is closer to US$50 billion as of the end of September.

Earlier reports had suggested the figure was closer to US$70 billion based on information provided to investors. Investors closely monitor OpenAI's and Anthropic's annualized revenue as a key indicator of demand for artificial intelligence, influencing decisions on data center investments and the AI-driven stock market rally. The metric, while commonly used, is sometimes criticized as imprecise or misleading due to its extrapolation of a single month's sales across a full year.

A source familiar with the matter revealed to CNBC that the initial higher number included gross revenue from OpenAI's partnerships with companies like Nvidia, a measure aimed at facilitating comparison with rival Anthropic. The news has negatively impacted AI-related stocks, with Nvidia down 2.9 percent, SpaceX down 4 percent, and Oracle losing nearly 6 percent.

OpenAI is currently in negotiations for fresh private fundraising, which could value the company at around US$1.4 trillion, as reported by the Financial Times. OpenAI had been expected to go public this fall with an initial public offering, but the listing has been postponed. Anthropic is anticipated to list on public markets next month.